The Dilemma Of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu In Ondo State

After winning the gubernatorial elections of Lagos state in 1999 and 2003 respectively, the political stature of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has seen surge from a prominent politician in Lagos state to an astute political juggernauts in Nigeria. On leaving Lagos state gubernatorial office in 2007, Asiwaju Tinubu consolidated on his grip of the state’s political affairs by installing his protégé, Mr Babatunde Fashola, as the state governor. He also installed his other protégés as senators, members of House of Representatives and members of House of Assembly for the state.

Fashola (Left) and Tinubu

Aside Lagos state, Asiwaju Tinubu has been unrelenting in his drive to penetrate other states of the southwest geopolitical zone so as to bring them into his grip and emerge as the undisputable political heavyweight in the zone.

In 2010, he succeeded in his quest to capture Osun and Ekiti states after the court of Appeal nullified the 2007 gubernatorial election victories of Governors Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Segun Oni respectively, and awarded the victories to two political protégés of Asiwaju Tinubu, Engr Rauf Aregbesola and Dr Olukayode Fayemi.

L-R: Aregbesola, Tinubu and Fayemi

Penultimate to the 2011 general election, Asiwaju Tinubu, through his Action Congress of Nigeria, entered into alliance with Senator Ibikunle Amosun and Senator Ajibola Ajimobi, the leading opposition leaders in Ogun and Oyo states respectively. The alliance proved to be successful as his two new allies defeated their Peoples Democratic Party rivals to win the gubernatorial election of the respective states. At the conclusion of the 2011 general election, Asiwaju Tinubu was able to establish his political influence all the states of the southwest except Ondo state.

Amosun and Ajimobi

Although Ondo state, like Lagos, Ekiti, Osun, Ogun and Oyo states, are predominantly Yorubas, it is the only state that has become a dilemma for Asiwaju Tinubu for almost one and half decade.

Since 2007, Asiwaju Tinubu has deployed so much in his quest to add Ondo state to his political “trophy cabinet”, but the more he tries, the more he fails as all his moves always end in nullity.

Before the 2007 general election, Asiwaju Tinubu made spirited efforts to entice Dr Olusegun Mimiko, a former minister of urban and housing, who fell out with Peoples Democratic Party over the decision of the party to ignore him and field state Governor Olusegun Agagu as the party’s gubernatorial candidate in the state at the 2007 election, into his political fold, but all his entreaties were rebuffed by Dr Mimiko. Instead, he (Mimiko) pitched his tent with Labour Party, and was made the party’s candidate at the election.

Despite Mimiko’s refusal, Asiwaju Tinubu still offered his resources to assist Dr Mimiko to prosecute his cases at the Ondo state election petition tribunal and court of Appeal after Dr Agagu was declared winner of the keenly contested election. After the Tribunal and Appeal court nullified the victory of Dr Agagu and pronounced Dr Mimiko as the winner of the 2007 gubernatorial election in 2009, Asiwaju Tinubu made a fresh offer to Dr Mimiko to join his camp, but Dr Mimiko turned down the offer once again.

Due to the refusal of Governor Olusegun Mimiko to accept Asiwaju Tinubu’s offer of joining him in Action Congress of Nigeria (which would have automatically brought Ondo state into his fold), he sponsored Chief Rotimi Akeredolu, one of his close ally and a former president of Nigeria Bar Association, to run for the 2012 gubernatorial election. Asiwaju Tinubu calculated that Chief Akeredolu would help wrestle power from Governor Olusegun Mimiko so as to capture Ondo state into his fold. Unfortunately, that arrangement also failed as Chief Akeredolu underperformed at the election by coming a distant third. He was the winner, Segun Mimiko and second placed Olusola Oke of Labour party and PDP respectively.

Akeredolu (Left), Tinubu (Right) during 2012 campaign

In 2016, the unrelenting Asiwaju Tinubu, anointed his protégé, Dr Segun Abraham to win Ondo state gubernatorial election under the platform of All Progressive Congress, but Abraham his candidate was defeated by Chief Akeredolu, who had become a sworn political rival of Asiwaju Tinubu, at the primary to win the nomination of APC. Although Asiwaju Tinubu remained a member of APC after the 2016 party primary, he refused to support the candidacy of Chief Rotimi Akeredolu at the main election. Though Chief Akeredolu won the election and was inaugurated governor, he didn’t deemed it necessary to align with Asiwaju Tinubu but elected to keep the formed Lagos state governor at arms length.

2020 Gubernatorial Election

The 2020 gubernatorial election has presented a new opportunity of Asiwaju Tinubu to actualise his thirteen year old desire to capture Ondo state. He is clearly backing the candidacy of Mr Segun Abraham, whom he backed in 2016, to defeat Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, and other aspirants to win the state’s gubernatorial election scheduled for September 2020, but he had three hurdles to cross in order to actualise his political desire.

The first hurdle before Asiwaju Tinubu is to find a way to convince other nine 2020 governorship aspirants within the APC Unity Forum to step down their ambitions for Mr Segun Abraham, his anointed candidate. The APC Unity Forum is a caucus of APC members in Ondo state that are opposed to Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Only few days ago, Alhaji Ali Olanusi, the Chairman of the Unity Forum, has announced that the Forum’s screening committee had headed by Senator Yele Omogunwa, had picked Chief Olusola Oke as the Forum’s preferred consensus candidate. Although the adoption of Chief Oke was not welcomed by other contestants and a faction of the Forum, Asiwaju Tinubu will have to convince the Forum’s chairman to rescind the adoption of Chief Oke, and also convince the other members of the Forum to adopt Mr Segun Abraham as their consensus candidate and work for his emergence at the primary.

Akeredolu (bottom left) with some aspirants from APC Unity Forum

If Asiwaju Tinubu succeeds in convincing members of the APC Unity Forum to support the bid of Mr Segun Abraham, the second hurdle for him will be to help Mr Segun Abraham to defeat Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, who has all apparatchiks of the state at his beck and call, and other aspirants to win the APC gubernatorial primary that is scheduled for June, 2020.

After crossing both hurdles, he will have to face the last hurdle of convincing Ondo state electorate to give majority votes to Mr Segun Abraham at the main election.

Tinubu and Abraham

Conclusively, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has worked so hard to midwife his political bloc within Alliance for Democracy into a formidable Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN in 2006 that would later join forces with other political parties to form the All Progressive Congress, APC in 2013. Between 2007 and 2019, he has been able to expand his political influence across Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti states, but Ondo state has remained a dilemma.